Home      Field Reports      News Bites          Archives

BIWEEKLY BRIEFING         Wednesday/September 26, 2001

 

WATER SHORTAGE IN CENTRAL ASIA: IS THERE A WAY OUT?
Akbar Tursunzod

The severest drought in Central Asia for the third consecutive year, and predictions that this type of events will be considered as ordinary events in the years to come, forces governments and international agencies to look for alternative sources of water, and to reconsider the current practice of water distribution in the region. The question how to distribute water resources in the region in order to avoid any further complications in the relations between the countries of Central Asia, becomes one of the most topical in the agenda of inter-state relations.

BACKGROUND: As a result of severe drought in Central Asia for third consecutive year, recurrent water shortage has resulted in emergency situations, primarily in the downstream regions of the Amu Darya River adjacent to the Aral Sea as well as some districts of Tajikistan. Regional governments are trying to cope with the disaster, but its scale surpasses the resources of regional states. Upstream counties are already trying to capitalize on their advantageous geographical location, putting forward demands for payment for the use of water by downstream countries. Around 45 million people live in the area and most utilize water from Amu Darya and Syr Darya, the two main sources of water in the region. The total combined volume of water of these rivers is 100-120 billion cubic meters annually, dependent on weather conditions.
The absence of mechanisms to handle the water problems has already resulted in various accusations and counter-accusations by all countries of improper water use. Upstream counties complain of the lack of adequate compensation for the water they deliver to their neighbors. In desperate need for additional resources, be it water or hydroelectricity, regional states are disregarding each other’s interests and create unnecessary tensions in their mutual relations. Kyrgyzstan recently overused its water-reservoir at Toktogul, and if it does not get sufficient natural gas this winter, it will be unable to generate required amounts of electricity as the water in the reservoir is almost exhausted. Turkmenistan, for its part, has announced ambitious plans to build an ‘artificial lake’ in the heart of the Karakum desert. The Turkmen government maintains the lake will allow Turkmenistan to increase its irrigated land from 1,2 million to 5 million hectares. These plans have generated a reaction in neighboring Karakalpakistan. Turkmenistan’s is already taking a third of Amu Darya’s water, which is mostly lost in the desert due to the unpaved nature of the canal’s bed. Unilateral decisions of this kind to overuse the limited water resources of the region may bring unpredictable consequences. Border controls between these countries are often sketchy and border troops ill-equipped. Such projects may in the worst case give birth to inter-ethnic tensions and border conflicts. The recent actions by Iranian naval warships and air force over disputed oil-rich areas in the south-western sector of the Caspian Sea between Azerbaijan and Iran show how the perils of unilateral actions without considering the interests of neighboring countries. Moreover, water is a potentially much more strategic commodity than oil in Central Asia, given the direct impact water issues have on millions of people. Hence, results might be more unpredictable and worse than in the case of the current Azerbaijan-Iran confrontation.

IMPLICATIONS: There are various ways to ease water-related tensions in Central Asia. Firstly, the five Central Asian republics need to work together in order to convince the Russian government of the necessity of diverting the water-flow of Siberian rivers Ob and Irtysh to Central Asia – something that would bring an additional 15-20 billion cubic meters of water to the region. Secondly, all countries should maximize the use of water-efficient technologies, especially to start paving the bed of canals in desert areas. Thirdly, the five states of Central Asia ought to reestablish the Soviet-era Water Management Agency. Within this agency, countries could reach agreement on three main issues: To develop and implement joint strategies for increasing water resources of the region; to develop and implement a water saving strategy in the region; and to agree on the basis of water distribution among the countries of the Central Asia.
In the final analysis, a fair and just basis for water redistribution could consist of three items: First, seasonal water-gas-energy exchange schemes between Central Asian states, currently in practice between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, and between Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. This agreement needs to include the participation of all five counties of the region. Second, water should be redistributed on the basis population numbers actually benefiting from the water of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya river basins. There should be a clear and indisputable understanding that a person in any of these countries is eligible to consume equal amounts of water as any other person in any other country. If we consider that under normal circumstances, 15% or 15-18 billion cubic meters of water reaches the seabed of the vanishing Aral Sea, the remaining 85-102 billion cubic meters should be redistributed among the 45 million people in the region. i.e. around 1900-2260 cubic meters per person annually. this figure is 5-6 times more than the consumption figures in developed countries of the world. This will amount to 47-56 billion cubic meters for Uzbekistan, 9-11 bullion cubic meters for Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan, respectively 12-14 billion cubic meters for Tajikistan and 7.5-8 billion cubic meters for the population of southern Kazakhstan. If the mountainous republics of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan consume less water, they may re-negotiate exchange of additional water volumes with other neighboring countries of Central Asia.

CONCLUSIONS: Unless this kind of just and fair system of water distribution is achieved and widely explained to all peoples of the region, some countries will become increasingly vulnerable to conduct of unwise policies of maximizing current profits, hence preparing a solid ground for losing much more in the near future by undermining the cooperation between peoples and threatening the regional stability of Central Asia.

AUTHOR BIO: Dr. Akbar Tursunzod is a visiting fellow at the University of Pennsylvania, originally from Tajikistan.

Copyright 2001 The Analyst. All Rights Reserved.